De : Ioan Rosca
Date : Mardi 20, Janvier 2004 6:59
Objet : Razboiul euro-dolar
Ar fi bine ca "romanalistii" de la Bucuresti sa scoata capul din nisip si sa mai
citeasca si altceva decit comunicatele oficinelor de propaganda aflate la
putere.
Ar observa atunci ca ne aflam in plin razboi euro-dolar pentru pozitia de inima
financiara mondiala (stat care primeste marfa oferind in schimb ...moneda de
schimb) . Chiar daca nu ar crede tot ce este scris in miile de situri
ne-aliniate de pe Internet, cei ce vor cu adevarat sa observe fenomenele mondiale ar gasi
motive serioase de meditatie citind texte ca extrasul de mai jos. Admiratorii
hipnotizati ai occidentului ar putea fi treziti daca ar intelege mecanismele
reale ale puterii si ale relatiilor internationale, evitind prosternarea si complexele
sterile in fata succesului lupului american- pe care Romania nu are cum sa-l
imite si nici de ce sa-l admire. Ar intelege si ce se ascunde in fata gesturilor de
tandrete tirzielnica si exasperata cu care ne imbie sacalul european. Oricit e
de greu, trebuie sa vedem realitatea limpede daca vrem sa luptam pentru
supravietuire, libertate, bunastare si emancipare: de-abia scapati din ghearele tigrului rus
(ce sta inca la pinda) si aflati inca in mina enormei capuse nationale, romanii nu
gasesc nici afara, decit conditii de jungla sofisticata. Nu au avut unde evada
in 1989. Nu au unde sa se aciueze, pentru a-si trada raspunderile.
Ioan Rosca
W. Clark | Independent Media Center | January 26, 2003
"I hypothesize that President Bush intends to topple Saddam in 2003 in a
pre-emptive attempt to initiate massive Iraqi oil production in far excess of
OPEC quotas, to reduce global oil prices, and thereby dismantle OPEC's price
controls.
The end-goal of the neo-conservatives is incredibly bold yet simple in purpose,
to use the 'war on terror' as the premise to finally dissolve OPEC's
decision-making process, thus ultimately preventing the cartel's inevitable switch to pricing
oil in euros."A Macroeconomic and Geostrategic Analysis of the Unspoken Truth
If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, it expects what never was and never
will be ... The People cannot be safe without information. When the press is
free, and every man is able to read, all is safe.
Those words by Thomas Jefferson embody the unfortunate state of affairs that
have beset our nation. As our government prepares to go to war with Iraq, our country
seems unable to answer even the most basic questions about this war. First, why
is there virtually no international support to topple Saddam? If Iraq's WMD program
truly possessed the threat level that President Bush has repeatedly purported,
why is there no international coalition to militarily disarm Saddam? Secondly,
despite over 300 unfettered U.N inspections to date, there has been no evidence reported
of a reconstituted Iraqi WMD program. Third, and despite Bush's rhetoric, the CIA
has not found any links between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda. To the contrary, some
analysts believe it is far more likely Al Qaeda might acquire an unsecured
former Soviet Union Weapon(s) of Mass Destruction, or potentially from sympathizers
within a destabilized Pakistan.
Moreover, immediately following Congress's vote on the Iraq Resolution, we
suddenly became aware of North Korea's nuclear program violations. Kim Jong Il is
processing uranium in order to produce nuclear weapons this year. President Bush has not
provided a rationale answer as to why Saddam's seemingly dormant WMD program
possesses a more imminent threat that North Korea's active program. Strangely,
Donald Rumsfeld suggested that if Saddam were "exiled" we could avoid an Iraq
war.
Confused yet? Well, I'm going to give their game away — the core driver for
toppling Saddam is actually the euro currency.
Although completely suppressed in the U.S. media, the answer to the Iraq enigma
is simple yet shocking. The upcoming war in Iraq war is mostly about how the ruling
class at Langley and the Bush oligarchy view hydrocarbons at the geo-strategic
level, and the overarching macroeconomic threats to the U.S. dollar from the
euro. The Real Reason for this upcoming war is this administration's goal of
preventing further OPEC momentum towards the euro as an oil transaction currency standard.
However, in order to pre-empt OPEC, they need to gain geo-strategic control of
Iraq along with its 2nd largest proven oil reserves.
This lengthy essay will discuss the macroeconomics of the "petro-dollar" and the
unpublicized but real threat to U.S. economic hegemony from the euro as an
alternative oil transaction currency. The following is how an astute and
anonymous friend alluded to the unspoken truth about this upcoming war with Iraq:
The Federal Reserve's greatest nightmare is that OPEC will switch its
international transactions from a dollar standard to a euro standard. Iraq actually made this
switch in Nov. 2000 (when the euro was worth around 80 cents), and has actually
made off like a bandit considering the dollar's steady depreciation against the
euro. (Note: the dollar declined 15% against the euro in 2002.)
"The real reason the Bush administration wants a puppet government in Iraq — or
more importantly, the reason why the corporate-military-industrial network
conglomerate wants a puppet government in Iraq — is so that it will revert back
to a dollar standard and stay that way." (While also hoping to veto any wider OPEC
momentum towards the euro, especially from Iran — the 2nd largest OPEC producer
who is actively discussing a switch to euros for its oil exports).
Furthermore, despite Saudi Arabia being our 'client state,' the Saudi regime
appears increasingly weak/threatened from massive civil unrest. Some analysts
believe a "Saudi Revolution" might be plausible in the aftermath of an unpopular
U.S. invasion of Iraq (ie. Iran circa 1979). [1] Undoubtedly, the Bush
administration is acutely aware of these risks. Hence, the neo-conservative
framework entails a large and permanent military presence in the Persian Gulf
region in a post-Saddam era, just in case we need to surround and grab Saudi's
oil fields in the event of a coup by an anti-western group. But first back to Iraq.
Saddam sealed his fate when he decided to switch to the euro in late 2000 (and
later converted his $10 billion reserve fund at the U.N. to euros) — at that
point, another manufactured Gulf War become inevitable under Bush II. Only the most
extreme circumstances could possibly stop that now and I strongly doubt anything
can — short of Saddam getting replaced with a pliant regime.
Big Picture Perspective: Everything else aside from the reserve currency and the
Saudi/Iran oil issues (i.e. domestic political issues and international
criticism) is peripheral and of marginal consequence to this administration. Further, the
dollar-euro threat is powerful enough that they'll rather risk much of the
economic backlash in the short-term to stave off the long-term dollar crash of an OPEC
transaction standard change from dollars to euros. All of this fits into the
broader Great Game that encompasses Russia, India, China.
This information about Iraq's oil currency is censored by the U.S. media as well
as the Bush administration and the Federal Reserve as the truth could potentially
curtail both investor and consumer confidence, reduce consumer
borrowing/spending, create political pressure to form a new energy policy that
slowly weans us off Middle Eastern oil, and of course stop our march towards war in Iraq.
This quasi–"state secret" can be found on a Radio Free Europe article discussing
Saddam's switch for his oil sales from dollars to the euros on Nov. 6, 2000. [2]
Baghdad's switch from the dollar to the euro for oil trading is intended to
rebuke Washington's hard-line on sanctions and encourage Europeans to challenge it. But
the political message will cost Iraq millions in lost revenue. RFE/RL
correspondent Charles Recknagel looks at what Baghdad will gain and lose, and the impact of
the decision to go with the European currency.
At the time of the switch many analysts were surprised that Saddam was willing
to give up millions in oil revenue for what appeared to be a political statement.
However, contrary to one of the main points of this November 2000 article, the
steady depreciation of the dollar versus the euro since late 2001 means that
Iraq has profited handsomely from the switch in their reserve and transaction
currencies. The euro has gained roughly 17% against the dollar in that time,
which also applies to the $10 billion in Iraq's U.N. "oil for food" reserve fund that
was previously held in dollars has also gained that same percent value since the
switch. What would happen if OPEC made a sudden switch to euros, as opposed to a
gradual transition?
Otherwise, the effect of an OPEC switch to the euro would be that oil-consuming
nations would have to flush dollars out of their [central bank] reserve funds
and replace these with euros. The dollar would crash anywhere from 20–40% in value
and the consequences would be those one could expect from any currency collapse and
massive inflation (think Argentina currency crisis, for example). You'd have
foreign funds stream out of the U.S. stock markets and dollar denominated
assets, there'd surely be a run on the banks much like the 1930s, the current account
deficit would become unserviceable, the budget deficit would go into default,
and so on. Your basic third world economic crisis scenario.
The United States economy is intimately tied to the dollar's role as reserve
currency. This doesn't mean that the U.S. couldn't function otherwise, but that
the transition would have to be gradual to avoid such dislocations (and the ultimate
result of this would probably be the U.S. and the E.U. switching roles in the
global economy).
In the aftermath of toppling Saddam it is clear the U.S. will keep a large and
permanent military force in the Persian Gulf. Indeed, there is no "exit
strategy" in Iraq, as the military will be needed to protect the newly installed Iraqi
regime, and perhaps send a message to other OPEC producers that they might
receive "regime change" if they too move to euros for their oil exports.
Another underreported story from this summer regarding the other OPEC "Axis of
Evil" country and their interest in the selling oil in euros, Iran. [3]
Iran's proposal to receive payments for crude oil sales to Europe in euros
instead of U.S. dollars is based primarily on economics, Iranian and industry sources
said. But politics are still likely to be a factor in any decision, they said, as Iran
uses the opportunity to hit back at the U.S. government, which recently labeled
it part of an "axis of evil."
The proposal, which is now being reviewed by the Central Bank of Iran, is likely
to be approved if presented to the country's parliament, a parliamentary
representative said. "There is a very good chance MPs will agree to this idea
...
now that the euro is stronger, it is more logical," the parliamentary
representative said.
Moreover, and perhaps most telling, during 2002, the majority of reserve funds
in Iran's central bank have been shifted to euros. It appears imminent that Iran
intends to switch to euros for their oil currency. [4]
More than half of the country's assets in the Forex Reserve Fund have been
converted to euro, a member of the Parliament Development Commission, Mohammad
Abasspour announced. He noted that higher parity rate of euro against the US
dollar will give the Asian countries, particularly oil exporters, a chance to usher in
a new chapter in ties with European Union's member countries.
He said that the United States dominates other countries through its currency,
noting that given the superiority of the dollar against other hard currencies,
the US monopolizes global trade. The lawmaker expressed hope that the competition
between euro and dollar would eliminate the monopoly in global trade.
Indeed, after toppling Saddam, this administration may decide that Iran is the
next target in the "war on terror." Iran's interest in switching to the euro as their
standard transaction currency for oil exports is well documented. Perhaps this
recent MSNBC article illustrates the objectives of the neo conservatives. [5]
While still wrangling over how to overthrow Iraq's Saddam Hussein, the Bush
administration is already looking for other targets. President Bush has called
for the ouster of Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat. Now some in the administration —
and allies at D.C. think tanks — are eyeing Iran and even Saudi Arabia. As one
senior British official put it: "Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go
to Tehran."
Aside from these political risks regarding Saudi Arabia and Iran, another risk
factor is actually Japan. Perhaps the biggest gamble in a protracted Iraq war
may be Japan's weak economy. [6] If the war creates prolonged oil high prices ($45
per barrel over several months), or a short but massive oil price spike ($80 to $100
per barrel), some analysts believe Japan's fragile economy would collapse. Japan
is quite hypersensitive to oil prices, and if its banks default, the collapse of
the second largest economy would set in motion a sequence of events that would prove
devastating to the U.S. economy. Indeed, Japan's fall in an Iraq war could
create the economic dislocations that begin in the Pacific Rim but quickly spread to
Europe and Russia. The Russian government lacks the controls to thwart a
disorderly run on the dollar, and such an event could ultimately force and OPEC switch to
euros.
Additionally, other risks might arise if the Iraq war goes poorly or becomes
prolonged, as it is possible that civil unrest may unfold in Kuwait or other
OPEC members including Venezuela, as the latter may switch to euros just as Saddam
did in November 2000. Thereby fostering the very situation this administration is
trying to prevent, another OPEC member switching to euros as their oil
transaction currency.
Incidentally, the final "Axis of Evil" country, North Korea, recently decided to
officially drop the dollar and begin using euros for trade, effective Dec. 7,
2002.
[7] Unlike the OPEC-producers, their switch will have negligible economic
impact, but it illustrates the geopolitical fallout of the President Bush's harsh
rhetoric.
Much more troubling is North Korea's recent action following the oil embargo of
their country. They are in dire need of oil and food; and in an act of
desperation they have re-activated their pre-1994 nuclear program. Processing uranium
appears
to be taking place at a rapid pace, and it appears their strategy is to prompt
negotiations with the U.S. regarding food and oil. The CIA estimates that North
Korea could produce 4–6 nuclear weapons by the second half of 2003. Ironically,
this crisis over North Korea's nuclear program further confirms the fraudulent
premise for which this war with Saddam was entirely contrived.
Unfortunately, neo-conservatives such as George Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald
Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz and Richard Perle fail to grasp that Newton's Law applies equally
to both physics and the geo-political sphere as well: For every action there is an
equal but opposite reaction.
During the 1990s the world viewed the U.S. as a rather self-absorbed but
essentially benevolent superpower. Military actions in Iraq (1990–91 and 1998),
Serbia and Kosovo (1999) were undertaken with both U.N. and NATO cooperation and
thus afforded international legitimacy. President Clinton also worked to reduce
tensions in Northern Ireland and attempted to negotiate a resolution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
However, in both the pre– and post–Sept. 11 intervals, the "America first"
policies of the Bush administration, with its unwillingness to honor international
treaties, along with their aggressive militarisation of foreign policy, has significantly
damaged our reputation abroad. Following Sept. 11, 2001, it appears that
President Bush's "warmongering rhetoric" has created global tensions — as we are now
viewed as a belligerent superpower willing to apply unilateral military force without
U.N. approval. Lamentably, the tremendous amount of international sympathy that we
witnessed in the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks has been replaced
with fear and anger at our government. This administration's bellicosity has changed
the worldview, and "anti-Americanism" is proliferating even among our closest
allies.
[8]
Even more alarming, and completely unreported in the U.S media, are some
monetary shifts in the reserve funds of foreign governments away from the dollar with
movements towards the euro (China, Venezuela, some OPEC producers and last week
Russia flushed some of their dollars for euros). [9] It appears that the world
community may lack faith in the Bush administration's economic policies, and
along with OPEC, seems poised to respond with economic retribution if the U.S.
government is regarded as an uncontrollable and dangerous superpower. The plausibility of
abandoning the dollar standard for the euro is growing. An interesting U.K.
article [10] outlines the dynamics and the potential outcomes:
The most likely end to US hegemony may come about through a combination of high
oil prices (brought about by US foreign policies toward the Middle East) and deeper
devaluation of the US dollar (expected by many economists). Some elements of
this scenario:
1) US global over-reach in the "war on terrorism" already leading to deficits as
far as the eye can see — combined with historically-high US trade deficits —
lead to a further run on the dollar. This and the stock market doldrums make the US
less attractive to the world's capital.
2) More developing countries follow the lead of Venezuela and China in
diversifying their currency reserves away from dollars and balanced with euros. Such a shift
in dollar-euro holdings in Latin America and Asia could keep the dollar and euro
close to parity.
3) OPEC could act on some of its internal discussions and decide (after
concerted buying of euros in the open market) to announce at a future meeting in Vienna
that OPEC's oil will be re-denominated in euros, or even a new oil-backed currency of
their own. A US attack on Iraq sends oil to $40 per barrel.
4) The Bush Administration's efforts to control the domestic political agenda
backfires. Damage over the intelligence failures prior to 9/11 and warnings of
imminent new terrorist attacks precipitate a further stock market slide.
5) All efforts by Democrats and the 57% of the US public to shift energy policy
toward renewables, efficiency, standards, higher gas taxes, etc. are blocked by
the Bush Administration and its fossil fuel industry supporters. Thus, the USA
remains vulnerable to energy supply and price shocks.
6) The EU recognizes its own economic and political power as the euro rises
further and becomes the world's other reserve currency. The G-8 pegs the euro and dollar
into a trading band — removing these two powerful currencies from speculators
trading screens (a "win-win" for everyone!). Tony Blair persuades Brits of this
larger reason for the UK to join the euro.
7) Developing countries lacking dollars or "hard" currencies follow Venezuela's
lead and begin bartering their undervalued commodities directly with each other
in computerized swaps and counter trade deals. President Chávez has inked 13 such
country barter deals on its oil, e.g., with Cuba in exchange for Cuban health
paramedics who are setting up clinics in rural Venezuelan villages.
The result of this scenario? The USA could no longer run its huge current
account trade deficits or continue to wage open-ended global war on terrorism or evil.
The USA ceases pursuing unilateralist policies. A new US administration begins to
return to its multilateralist tradition, ceases its obstruction and rejoins the
UN and pursues more realistic international cooperation.
As for the events currently taking place in Venezuela, items #2 and #7 on the
above list may allude to why the Bush administration quickly endorsed the failed
military-led coup of Hugo Chávez in April 2002. Although the coup collapsed
after 2 days, various reports suggest the CIA and a rather embarrassed Bush
administration approved and may have been actively involved with the civilian/military coup
plotters. [11]
Bush's administration was the failed coup's primary loser, underscoring its
bankrupt hemispheric policy. Now it is slowly filtering out that in recent
months White House officials met with key coup figures, including Carmona. Although the
administration insists that it explicitly objected to any extra-constitutional
action to remove Chávez, comments by senior U.S. officials did little to convey
this.
The CIA's role in a 1971 Chilean strike could have served as the working model
for generating economic and social instability in order to topple Chávez. In the
truckers' strike of that year, the agency secretly orchestrated and financed the
artificial prolongation of a contrived work stoppage in order to economically
asphyxiate the leftist Salvador Allende government.
This scenario would have had CIA operatives acting in liaison with the
Venezuelan military, as well as with opposition business and labor leaders, to convert a
relatively minor afternoon-long work stoppage by senior management into a nearly
successful coup de grâce.
Interestingly, according to an article by Michael Ruppert, Venezuelan's
ambassador Francisco Mieres-Lopez apparently floated the idea of switching to the euro as
their oil currency standard approximately one year before the failed coup
attempt ... Furthermore, there is evidence that the CIA is still active in its attempts
to overthrow the democratically elected Chávez administration. In fact, this past
December a Uruguayan government official recently exposed the ongoing covert CIA
operations in Venezuela [12]:
Uruguayan EP-FA congressman Jose Bayardi says he has information that
far-reaching plan have been put into place by the CIA and other North American intelligence
agencies to overthrow Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.
Bayardi says he has received copies of top-secret communications between the
Bush administration in Washington and the government of Uruguay requesting the
latter's cooperation to support white collar executives and trade union activists to
"break down levels of intransigence within the Chávez administration."
Venezuela is the fourth-largest producer of oil, and the corporate elites whose
political power runs unfettered in the Bush/Cheney oligarchy appear interested
in privatizing Venezuela's oil industry. Furthermore, the establishment might be
concerned that Chávez's "barter deals" with 12 Latin American countries and Cuba
are effectively cutting the U.S. dollar out of the vital oil transaction
currency cycle. Commodities are being traded among these countries in exchange for
Venezuela's oil, thereby reducing reliance on fiat dollars. If these unique oil
transactions proliferate, they could create more devaluation pressure on the
dollar. Continuing attempts by the CIA to remove Hugo Chávez appear likely.
The U.S. economy has acquired several problems, including as our record-high
trade account deficit (almost 5% of GDP), $6.3 trillion dollar deficit (55% of GDP),
and the recent return to annual budget deficits in the hundreds of billions. These
are factors that would devalue the currency of any nation under the "old rules." Why
is the dollar still strong despite these structural flaws? Well, the elites
understand that the strength of the dollar does not merely rest on our economic output per
se. The dollar posses two unique advantages relative to all other hard currencies.
The reality is that the strength of the dollar since 1945 rests on being the
international reserve currency and thus fiat currency for global oil
transactions (ie. "petro-dollar"). The U.S. prints hundreds of billions of these fiat
petro-dollars, which are then used by nation-states to purchase oil/energy from
OPEC producers (except Iraq, to some degree Venezuela, and perhaps Iran in the
near future). These petro-dollars are then re-cycled from OPEC back into the U.S. via
treasury bills or other dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. stocks, real
estate, etc.
The "old rules" for valuation of our currency and economic power were based on
our flexible market, free flow of trade goods, high per worker productivity,
manufacturing output/trade surpluses, government oversight of accounting
methodologies (ie. SEC), developed infrastructure, education system, and of
course total cash flow and profitability. While many of these factors remain present,
over the last two decades we have diluted some of these "safe harbor" fundamentals.
Despite imbalances and some structural problems that are escalating within the
U.S. economy, the dollar as the fiat oil currency created "new rules". The following
exerpts from an Asia Times article [13] discusses the virtues of our fiat oil
currency and dollar hegemony (or vices from the perspective of developing
nations, whose debt is denominated in dollars).
Ever since 1971, when US president Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold
standard (at $35 per ounce) that had been agreed to at the Breton Woods
Conference at the end of World War II, the dollar has been a global monetary instrument
that the United States, and only the United States, can produce by fiat. The dollar,
now a fiat currency, is at a 16-year trade-weighted high despite record US
current-account deficits and the status of the US as the leading debtor nation.
The US national debt as of April 4 was $6.021 trillion against a gross domestic
product (GDP) of $9 trillion.
World trade is now a game in which the US produces dollars and the rest of the
world produces things that dollars can buy. The world's interlinked economies no
longer trade to capture a comparative advantage; they compete in exports to
capture needed dollars to service dollar-denominated foreign debts and to accumulate
dollar reserves to sustain the exchange value of their domestic currencies. To prevent
speculative and manipulative attacks on their currencies, the world's central
banks must acquire and hold dollar reserves in corresponding amounts to their
currencies in circulation. The higher the market pressure to devalue a particular currency,
the more dollar reserves its central bank must hold. This creates a built-in
support for a strong dollar that in turn forces the world's central banks to
acquire and hold more dollar reserves, making it stronger.
This phenomenon is known as dollar hegemony, which is created by the
geopolitically constructed peculiarity that critical commodities, most notably oil, are
denominated in dollars. Everyone accepts dollars because dollars can buy oil.
The recycling of petro-dollars is the price the US has extracted from oil-producing
countries for US tolerance of the oil-exporting cartel since 1973.
By definition, dollar reserves must be invested in US assets, creating a
capital-accounts surplus for the US economy. Even after a year of sharp
correction, US stock valuation is still at a 25-year high and trading at a 56 percent
premium compared with emerging markets. The US capital-account surplus in turn finances
the US trade deficit. Moreover, any asset, regardless of location, that is
denominated in dollars is a US asset in essence. When oil is denominated in dollars through
US state action and the dollar is a fiat currency, the US essentially owns the
world's oil for free. And the more the US prints greenbacks, the higher the price of US
assets will rise. Thus a strong-dollar policy gives the US a double win.
This unique geo-political agreement with Saudi Arabia has worked to our favor
for the past 30 years, as this arrangement has raised the entire asset value of all
dollar denominated assets/properties, and allowed the Federal Reserve to create
a truly massive debt and credit expansion (or "credit bubble" in the view of some
economists). These current structural imbalances in the U.S. economy are
sustainable as long as:
1) Nations continue to demand and purchase oil for their energy/survival needs
2) The fiat reserve currency for global oil transactions remains the U.S. dollar
(and dollar only)
These underlying factors, along with the "safe harbor" reputation of U.S.
investments afforded by the dollar's reserve currency status propelled the U.S.
to economic and military hegemony in the post-World War II period. However, the
introduction of the euro is a significant new factor, and appears to be the
primary threat to U.S. economic hegemony.
More over, in December 2002 ten additional countries were approved for full
membership into the E.U. In 2004 this will result in an aggregate GDP of $9.6
trillion and 450 million people, directly competing with the U.S. economy ($10.5
trillion GDP, 280 million people).
Especially interesting is a speech given by Mr. Javad Yarjani, the Head of
OPEC's Petroleum Market Analysis Department, in a visit to Spain (April 2002). He
speech dealt entirely on the subject of OPEC oil transaction currency standard with
respect to both the dollar and the euro. The following exerpts from this OPEC
executive provide insights into the conditions that would create momentum for an
OPEC currency switch to the euro. Indeed, his candid analysis warrants careful
consideration given that two of the requisite variables he outlines for the
switch have taken place since this speech in early 2002. These vital stories are
discussed in the European media, but have been censored by our own mass media. [14]
The question that comes to mind is whether the euro will establish itself in
world financial markets, thus challenging the supremacy of the US dollar, and
consequently trigger a change in the dollar's dominance in oil markets. As we
all know, the mighty dollar has reigned supreme since 1945, and in the last few
years has even gained more ground with the economic dominance of the United States, a
situation that may not change in the near future. By the late 90s, more than
four-fifths of all foreign exchange transactions, and half of all world exports,
were denominated in dollars. In addition, the US currency accounts for about two
thirds of all official exchange reserves. The world's dependency on US dollars
to pay for trade has seen countries bound to dollar reserves, which are
disproportionably higher than America's share in global output. The share of the
dollar in the denomination of world trade is also much higher than the share of
the US in world trade.
Having said that, it is worthwhile to note that in the long run the euro is not
at such a disadvantage versus the dollar when one compares the relative sizes of
the economies involved, especially given the EU enlargement plans. Moreover, the
Euro-zone has a bigger share of global trade than the US and while the US has a
huge current account deficit, the euro area has a more, or balanced, external
accounts position. One of the more compelling arguments for keeping oil pricing
and payments in dollars has been that the US remains a large importer of oil,
despite being a substantial crude producer itself. However, looking at the statistics of
crude oil exports, one notes that the Euro-zone is an even larger importer of
oil and petroleum products than the US."
From the EU's point of view, it is clear that Europe would prefer to see
payments for oil shift from the dollar to the euro, which effectively removed the
currency risk. It would also increase demand for the euro and thus help raise its value.
Moreover, since oil is such an important commodity in global trade, in term of
value, if pricing were to shift to the euro, it could provide a boost to the
global acceptability of the single currency. There is also very strong trade links
between OPEC Member Countries (MCs) and the Euro-zone, with more than 45 percent of
total merchandise imports of OPEC MCs coming from the countries of the Euro-zone,
while OPEC MCs are main suppliers of oil and crude oil products to Europe.
Of major importance to the ultimate success of the euro, in terms of the oil
pricing, will be if Europe's two major oil producers — the United Kingdom and
Norway — join the single currency. Naturally, the future integration of these
two countries into the Euro-zone and Europe will be important considering they are
the region's two major oil producers in the North Sea, which is home to the
international crude oil benchmark, Brent. This might create a momentum to shift
the oil pricing system to euros.
In the short-term, OPEC MCs, with possibly a few exceptions, are expected to
continue to accept payment in dollars. Nevertheless, I believe that OPEC will
not discount entirely the possibility of adopting euro pricing and payments in the
future. The Organization, like many other financial houses at present, is also
assessing how the euro will settle into its life as a new currency. The critical
question for market players is the overall value and stability of the euro, and
whether other countries within the Union will adopt the single currency.
Should the euro challenge the dollar in strength, which essentially could
include it in the denomination of the oil bill, it could be that a system may emerge
which benefits more countries in the long-term. Perhaps with increased European
integration and a strong European economy, this may become a reality. Time may
be on your side. I wish the euro every success.
Based on this important speech, momentum for OPEC to consider switching to the
euro will grow once the E.U. expands in May 2004 to 450 million people with the
inclusion of 10 additional member states. The aggregate GDP will increase from
$7 trillion to $9.6 trillion. This enlarged E.U. will be an oil consuming
purchasing population 33% larger than the U.S., and over half of OPEC crude oil will be
sold to the EU as of mid-2004. This does not include other potential entrants such as
the U.K., Norway, Denmark and Sweden. I should note that since this speech the
euro has been trading at parity or above the dollar since late 2002, and analysts
predict the dollar will continue its downward trending in 2003 relative to the
euro.
Further, if or when the U.K. adopts the euro currency, that development could
provide critical motivation for OPEC to the make the transition to euros. It
appears the final two pivotal items that would create the OPEC transition to
euros will be based on if and when Norway's Brent crude is re-dominated in euros, and
when the U.K. adopts the euro. Regarding the later, Tony Blair is lobbying
heavily for the U.K. to adopt the euro, and their adoption would seem imminent within
this decade. Again, I offer the following information from my astute acquaintance who
analyzes these matters very carefully regarding the euro:
The pivotal vote will probably be Sweden, where approval this next autumn of
adopting the euro also would give momentum to the Danish government's strong
desire to follow suit. Polls in Denmark now indicate that the euro would pass with a
comfortable margin and Norwegian polls show a growing majority in favor of EU
membership. Indeed, with Norway having already integrated most EU economic
directives through the EEA partnership and with their strongly appreciated
currency, their accession to the euro would not only be effortless, but of great
economic benefit.
As go the Swedes, so probably will go the Danes and Norwegians. It's the British
who are the real obstacle to building momentum for the euro as international
transaction and reserve currency. So long as the United Kingdom remains apart
from the euro, reducing exchange rate costs between the euro and the British pound
remains their obvious priority. British adoption (a near-given in the long run)
would mount significant pressure toward repegging the Brent crude benchmark —
which is traded on the International Petroleum Exchange in London — and the Norwegians
would certainly have no objection whatsoever that I can think of, whether or not
they join the European Union.
Finally, the maneuvers toward reducing the global dominance of the dollar are
already well underway and have only reason to accelerate so far as I can see. An
OPEC pricing shift would seem rather unlikely prior 2004 — barring political
motivations (ie. motivations of OPEC members) or a disorderly collapse of the
dollar (ie. prolonged high oil prices due to Iraq war causes Japanese bank
collapse) — but appears quite viable to take place before the end of the decade.
In other words, around 2005, from an economic perspective it will be logical for
OPEC to switch to the euro for oil pricing. Of course that will devalue the
dollar, and hurt the US economy unless it begins making some structual changes — or use
its massive military power to force events upon the OPEC states...
Facing these potentialities, I hypothesize that President Bush intends to topple
Saddam in 2003 in a pre-emptive attempt to initiate massive Iraqi oil production
in far excess of OPEC quotas, to reduce global oil prices, and thereby dismantle
OPEC's price controls. The end-goal of the neo-conservatives is incredibly bold
yet simple in purpose, to use the "war on terror" as the premise to finally dissolve
OPEC's decision-making process, thus ultimately preventing the cartel's
inevitable switch to pricing oil in euros.
How would the Bush administration break-up the OPEC cartel's price controls in a
post-Saddam Iraq? First, the newly-installed regime (apparently a U.S. general
for the first several months) will convert Iraq back to the dollar standard. Next,
with the U.S. military protecting the oil fields, the Bush junta will undertake the
necessary steps to rapidly increase production of Iraq oil, quintupling Iraq's
current output — and well beyond OPEC's 2 million barrel per day quota.
Dr. Nayyer Ali offers a succinct analysis of how Iraq's underutilized oil
reserves will not be a "profit-maker" for the U.S. government, but it will serve as the
crucial economic instrument used by the Bush junta to leverage and hopefully
dissolve OPEC's price controls, thus causing the neo-conservative's long sought
goal of collapsing the OPEC cartel: [15]
Despite this vast pool of oil, Iraq has never produced at a level proportionate
to the reserve base. Since the Gulf War, Iraq's production has been limited by
sanctions and allowed sales under the oil for food program (by which Iraq has
sold 60 billion dollars worth of oil over the last 5 years) and what else can be
smuggled out. This amounts to less than 1 billion barrels per year. If Iraq were
reintegrated into the world economy, it could allow massive investment in its
oil sector and boost output to 2.5 billion barrels per year, or about 7 million
barrels a day.
Total world oil production is about 75 million barrels, and OPEC combined
produces about 25 million barrels.
What would be the consequences of this? There are two obvious things.
First would be the collapse of OPEC, whose strategy of limiting production to
maximize price will have finally reached its limit. An Iraq that can produce
that much oil will want to do so, and will not allow OPEC to limit it to 2 million
barrels per day. If Iraq busts its quota, then who in OPEC will give up 5
million barrels of production? No one could afford to, and OPEC would die. This would
lead o the second major consequence, which is a collapse in the price of oil to the
10-dollar range per barrel. The world currently uses 25 billion barrels per
year, o a 15-dollar drop will save oil-consuming nations 375 billion dollars in crude
oil costs every year.
The Iraq war is not a moneymaker. But it could be an OPEC breaker. That however
is long-term outcome that will require Iraq to be successfully reconstituted into
a unctioning state in which massive oil sector investment can take place.
The American people are largely oblivious to the economic risks regarding
President ush's upcoming war. Not only is Japan's economy at grave risk from a spike in
oil rices, but additional risks relate to Iran and Venezuela as well, either of
whom ould move to the euros, thus providing further momentum for OPEC to act on
their internal discussions" and switch to the euro as the fiat currency for oil. The
Bush administration believes that by toppling Saddam they will remove the
juggernaut, thus allowing the US to control Iraqi's huge oil reserves, and
finally reak-up and dissolve the 10 remaining countries in OPEC.
This last issue is undoubtedly a significant gamble even in the best-case
scenario f a quick and relatively painless war that topples Saddam and leaves Iraq's oil
fields intact. Undoubtedly, the OPEC cartel could feel threatened by the Bush
junta's stated goal of breaking-up OPEC's price controls ($22–$28 per barrel).
Perhaps the Bush administration's ambitious goal of flooding the oil market with
Iraqi crude may work, but I have doubts. Will OPEC simply tolerate quota-busting
Iraqi oil production, thus delivering to them a lesson in self-inflicted
hara-kiri
(suicide)?
Contrarily, OPEC could meet in Vienna and in an act of self-preservation
re-denominate the oil currency to the euro. Such a decision by would mark the
end of U.S. dollar hegemony, and thus the end of our precarious economic superpower
status. Again, I offer the astute analysis of my expert friend regarding the
colossal gamble this administration is about to undertake:
One of the dirty little secrets of today's international order is that the rest
of the globe could topple the United States from its hegemonic status whenever they
so hoose with a concerted abandonment of the dollar standard. This is America's
preeminent, inescapable Achilles' heel for now and the foreseeable future.
That such a course hasn't been pursued to date bears more relation to the fact
that ther Westernized, highly developed nations haven't any interest to undergo the
great disruptions which would follow — but it could assuredly take place in the
event that the consensus view coalesces of the United States as any sort of
"rogue" nation. In other words, if the dangers of American global hegemony are ever
perceived as a greater liability than the dangers of toppling the international
order (or, alternately, if an "every man for himself" crisis as discussed above
spirals out of control and forces their hand). The Bush administration and the
neo-conservative movement has set out on a multiple-front course to ensure that
this cannot take place, in brief by a graduated assertion of military hegemony
atop the existent economic hegemony.
The paradox I've illustrated with this one narrow scenario is that the quixotic
course itself may very well bring about the feared outcome that it means to
preempt. We shall see!
Under this administration we have returned to massive deficit spending, and the
lack of strong SEC enforcement has further eroded investor confidence.
Regrettably,
the flawed economic and tax policies and of the Bush administration may be
exacerbating the weakness of the dollar, if not outright accelerating some
countries to diversify their central bank reserve funds with euros as an
alternative to the dollar. From a foreign policy perspective, the terminations
of numerous international treaties and disdain for international cooperation via
the UN and NATO have angered even our closest allies.
Lastly, and despite President Bush's attempt to use the threat of applying
military force to OPEC producers who may wish to switch to the euro for their oil
payments, it appears their belligerent neo conservative policies may paradoxically bring
about the dire outcome they hope to prevent — an OPEC currency switch to euros.
The American people are not aware of such information due to the U.S. mass
media, which has been reduced to a handful of consumption/entertainment and
profit-oriented conglomerates that filter the flow of information in the U.S.
Indeed, the Internet provides the only source of unfiltered "real news."
Synopsis:
It would appear that any attempt by OPEC member states in the Middle East or
Latin America to transition to the euro as their oil transaction currency standard
shall be met with either overt U.S. military actions or covert U.S. intelligence
agency interventions. Under the guise of the perpetual "war on terror" the Bush
administration is manipulating the American people about the unspoken but very
real macroeconomic reasons for this upcoming war with Iraq. This war in Iraq will
have nothing to with any threat from Saddam's old WMD program. This war will be over
the global currency of oil.
Sadly, the U.S. has become largely ignorant and complacent. Too many of us are
willing to be ruled by fear and lies, rather than by persuasion and truth. Will
we allow our government to initiate the dangerous "pre-emptive doctrine" by waging
an unpopular war in Iraq, while we refuse to acknowledge that Saddam does not pose
an imminent threat to the United States? We seem unable to address the structural
weakness of our economy due to massive debt manipulation, unaffordable 2001 tax
cuts, massive current account deficits, trade deficits, corporate accounting
abuses, unsustainable credit expansion, near zero personal savings, record
personal indebtedness, and our dependence and over consumption of cheap Middle Eastern
oil. How much longer can we reliably import our oil from middle eastern states that
dislike or despise us because of our biased foreign policy towards Israel?
Lastly, we must bear in mind Jefferson's insistence that a free press is our
best, and perhaps only mechanism to protect democracy, and part of today's dilemma
lies within the U.S. media conglomerates that have failed to inform the People.
Regardless of whatever Dr. Blix finds or doesn't find in Iraq regarding WMD, it
appears that President Bush is determined to pursue his "pre-emptive"
imperialist war to secure a large portion of the earth's remaining hydrocarbons, and then
use Iraq's underutilized oil to destroy the OPEC cartel. Will this gamble work?
Undeniably our nation may suffer not only from economic retribution, but also
from increased Al Qaeda–sponsored terrorism as well. Will we stand idle and watch
CNN, as our government becomes an international pariah by discarding international
law as it wages a unilateral war in Iraq?
Is it morally defensible to deploy our brave but na?ve young soldiers around the
globe to enforce U.S. dollar hegemony for global oil transactions — via the
barrel of their guns? Will we allow imperialist conquest in the Middle East to feed our
excessive energy consumption, while ignoring the duplicitous overthrowing of a
democratically elected government in Latin America? Shall we accept the grave
price of an unjust war over the currency of oil? We must not stand silent and watch
our country become a "rogue" superpower, relying on brute force, thereby forcing the
industrialized nations or OPEC to abandon the dollar standard — thus with the
mere stroke of a pen — slay the U.S. Empire?
Informed citizens believe this administration is pushing us towards that dire
outcome. Remaining silent is not only misguided, but false patriotism.
This need not be our fate. When will we demand that our government begin the
long and difficult journey towards energy conservation, the development of renewable
energy sources, and sustained balanced budgets to allow real deficit reduction?
When will we repeal of the unaffordable 2001 tax cuts to create a balanced
budget, enforce corporate accounting laws, and substantially reinvest in our
manufacturing and export sectors to move our economy from a trade account deficit position
back into a trade account surplus position? Undoubtedly, we must make these and many
more painful structural changes to our economy if we are to restore our "safe
harbor" investment status.
Ultimately we will have to make sacrifices by reducing our excessive energy
consumption that we have become accustomed to as a society. It is imperative
that our government also begins economic and monetary reforms immediately. We must
adopt our economy to accommodate the inevitable competition to the dollar from the
euro as an alternative international reserve currency and oil transaction currency.
The Bush administration's seemingly entrenched political ideology appears quite
incompatible with these necessary economic reforms. Ultimately We the People
must demand a new and more responsible administration. We need leaders who are
willing to return balanced, conservative fiscal policies, and to our traditions of
engaging in multilateral foreign policies while seeking broad international cooperation.
It has been said that all wars are fought over resources or ideology/religion.
It appears that this administration may soon add "currency wars" as a third
paradigm. I fear that the world community will not tolerate a U.S. Empire that uses its
military power to conquer sovereign nations who decide to sell their oil
products in euros instead of dollars. Likewise, if President Bush pursues an essentially
unilateral war against Iraq, I suspect the historians will not be kind to his
administration. Their agenda is clear to the world community, but when will U.S.
patriots become cognizant of their modus operandi?
If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come
to believe it.
The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people
from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus
becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress
dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension,
the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.
— Joseph Goebbels, German Minister of Propaganda, 1933–1945
Background Information on Hydrocarbons
To understand hydrocarbons and how we got to this desperate place in Iraq, I
have listed four articles in the reference section from Michael Ruppert's
controversial website: From the Wilderness. Although some of Ruppert's articles are
overwrought from time to time, their research detailing the issues of hydrocarbons, and the
interplay between energy and the Bush junta's perpetual "war on terror" is quite
informative. Other than the core driver of the dollar-versus-euro currency
threat, the other issue related to the upcoming war with Iraq appears related to the
Caspian Sea region. Since the mid-late 1990s the Caspian Sea region of Central
Asia was thought to hold approximately 200 billion barrels of untapped oil (the later
would be comparable to Saudi Arabia's reserve base). [16] Based on an early
feasibility study by Enron, the easiest and cheapest way to bring this oil to
market would be a pipeline from Kazakhstan, through Afghanistan to the Pakistan
border at Malta. In 1998 then-CEO of Halliburton, Dick Cheney, expressed much
interest in building that pipeline.
In fact, these oil reserves were a central component of Vice President Cheney's
energy plan released in May 2001. According to his report, the U.S. will import
90% of its oil by 2020, and thus tapping into the reserves in the Caspian Sea region
was viewed as a strategic goal that would help meet our growing energy demand,
and also reduce our dependence on oil from the Middle East. [17] According to the
French book, The Forbidden Truth [18], the Bush administration ignored the U.N.
sanctions that had been imposed upon the Taliban and entered into negotiations
with the supposedly "rogue regime" from February 2, 2001 to August 6, 2001. According
to this book, the Taliban were apparently not very cooperative based on the
statements of Pakistan's former ambassador, Mr. Naik. He reports that the U.S. threatened a
"military option" in the summer of 2001 if the Taliban did not acquiesce to our
demands. Fortuitous for the Bush administration and Cheney's energy plan, bin
Laden delivered to us 9/11. The pre-positioned U.S. military; along with the CIA
providing cash to the Northern Alliance leaders, led the invasion of Afghanistan
and the Taliban were routed. The pro-western Karzai government was ushered in.
The pipeline project was now back on track in early 2002 — well, sort of.
After three exploratory wells were built and analyzed, it was reported that the
Caspian region holds only approximately 10 to 20 billion barrels of oil
(although it does have a lot of natural gas). [16] The oil is also of poor quality, with
high sulfur content. Subsequently, several major companies have now dropped their
plans for the pipeline citing the massive project as no longer profitable.
Unfortunately, this recent realization about the Caspian Sea region has serious implications
for the U.S., India, China, Asia and Europe, as the amount of available hydrocarbons
for industrialized and developing nations has been decreased downward by 20%
(Global estimates reduced from 1.2 trillion to approximately 1 trillion).
[18/19] The Bush administration quickly turned its attention to a known quantity, Iraq,
with it proven reserves totaling 11% of the world's oil reserves. Our greatest
nemesis, bin Laden, was quickly replaced with our new public enemy number one,
Saddam Hussein.
For those who would like to review the impact of depleting hydrocarbon reserves
from the geo-political perspective, and the potential ramifications to how this
may ultimately create an erosion of our civil liberties and democratic processes,
retired U.S. Special Forces officer Stan Goff offers a sobering analysis in his
essay: "The Infinite War and Its Roots." [20] Likewise, for those who wish to
review the unspeakable evidence surrounding the Sept. 11 attacks, the
controversial essay "The Enemy Within" by the famous American writer Gore Vidal offers a
thorough introduction. Although published in Italy and a major UK newspaper, The
Observer, you will not read Gore Vidal's controversial essay in the U.S. media. Gore
Vidal's latest book, Dreaming War features this as the opening essay. [21] Finally, "The
War on Freedom" by British political scientist Nafeez Ahmed asks disconcerting
questions about the Sept. 11 events. [22]
References:
[1] London, Heidi Kingstone. "Middle East: Trouble in the House of Saud,"
Jerusalem
Report Magazine, Jan. 13, 2003. www.jrep.com/Mideast/Article-0.html
[2] Recknagel, Charles. "Iraq: Baghdad Moves to Euro," Radio Free Europe, Nov.
1,
2000. www.rferl.org/nca/features/2000/11/01112000160846.asp
[3] Gutman, Roy and John Barry. "Beyond Baghdad: Expanding Target List,"
Newsweek,
Aug. 11, 2002. www.unansweredquestions.net/timeline/2002/newsweek081102.html
[4] "Economics Drive Iran Euro Oil Plan, Politics Also Key," Dow Jones, Aug. 23,
2002. www.iranexpert.com/2002/economicsdriveiraneurooil23august.htm
[5] "Forex Fund Shifting to Euro," Iran Financial News, Aug. 25, 2002.
www.payvand.com/news/02/aug/1080.html
[6] Costello, Tom. "Japan's Economy at Risk of Collapse," CNBC, Dec. 11, 2002.
www.msnbc.com/news/845708.asp?0cl=cR
[7] Gluck, Caroline. "North Korea embraces the euro," BBC, Dec. 1, 2002.
news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2531833.stm
[8] "What the World Thinks in 2002: How Global Publics View Their Lives, Their
Countries, The World, America," Pew Research Center, Dec. 4, 2002.
people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=165
[9] "Euro continues to extend its global influence," EuroPartnership.com, Jan.
7,
2002. www.europartnership.com/news/02jan07.htm
[10] Henderson, Hazel. "Beyond Bush's Unilateralism: Another Bi-Polar World or A
New Era of Win-Win?," InterPress Service, Jun. 2002.
www.hazelhenderson.com/Bush's%20unilateralism.htm
[11] Birms, Larry and Alex Volberding. "U.S. is the Primary Loser in Failed
Venezuelan Coup," Newsday, Apr. 21, 2002.
www.coha.org/COHA%20_in%20_the_news/Articles%202002/newsday_04_21_02_us__venezue
\
la.htm
[12] "USA intelligence agencies revealed in plot to oust Venezuela's President,"
Dec. 12, 2002. www.vheadline.com/0212/14248.asp (link now dead)
[13] Liu, Henry CK. "US dollar hegemony has got to go," Asia Times, Apr. 11,
2002.
www.atimes.com/global-econ/DD11Dj01.html
[14] Yarjani, Javad. "The Choice of Currency for the Denomination of the Oil
Bill,"
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Apr. 14, 2002.
www.opec.org/NewsInfo/Speeches/sp2002/spAraqueSpainApr14.htm
[15] Ali, Dr. Nayyer. "Iraq and Oil," PakistanLink, Dec. 13, 2002.
www.pakistanlink.com/nayyer/12132002.html
[16] Pfeiffer, Dale. "Much Ado about Nothing – Whither the Caspian Riches?,"
From
the Wilderness, Dec. 5, 2002.
www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/120502_caspian.html
[17] Ruppert, Michael. "The Unseen Conflict," From the Wilderness, Oct. 18,
2002.
www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/101802_the_unseen.html
[18] Briscard, Jean-Charles and Guillaume Dasquie. The Forbidden Truth:
U.S.-Taliban Secret Oil Diplomacy, Saudi Arabia and the Failed Search for bin
Laden, Nation Books, 2002.
[19] Ruppert, Michael. "Colin Campbell on Oil," From the Wilderness, Oct. 23,
2002.
www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/102302_campbell.html
[20] Golf, Stan. "The Infinite War and its Roots," From the Wilderness.
www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082702_infinite_war.html
[21] Vidal, Gore. Dreaming War: Blood for Oil and the Cheney-Bush Junta, Nation
Books, 2002. "The Enemy Within", Observer (U.K.), Oct. 27, 2002.
www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/EnemyWithin.html
[22] Ahmed, Nafeez. The War on Freedom: How and Why America was Attacked,
September
11, 2001, Tree of Life Publications, 2002.